Email: laurie.e.page@lpl.com
CALL NOW! (941) 932-4822
It has certainly been a busy couple of weeks in the financial markets with plenty of news to shake even the steadiest of nerves when they look to their financial futures. We want you to know that your advisory team here at Sound Wealth Management is well attuned to recent events as well as forward looking forecasts and we are here to help you to cut through some of the noise surrounding recent global financial news.
We have had the privilege of being on conference calls on both Monday and Wednesday this week with analysts from JPMorgan both in the US and Europe to discuss the recent bank failures, Fed decisions, and Central Bank decisions and how these might impact client portfolios moving forward. To quote JPMorgan Chief Global Strategist, Dr. David Kelly, “in recent decades, monetary policy, when applied to the tasks of boosting and slowing the economy, has seemed like a car with an unresponsive accelerator and unreliable brakes.” We have gone from a period of extraordinary fiscal stimulus leading to asset bubbles – particularly in the bond market, to a period of extreme fiscal tightening from a hawkish Fed that has done little more to curb inflation any faster than would have occurred naturally with the removal of fiscal stimulus. This has led us to a precipice where we face two main financial issues today with opposite solutions.
First, we are still in a period of inflation considerably higher than the Fed’s target of 2%. However, while it may not feel like it at the grocery store, it has been nearly nine months since inflation peaked and has been on a steady downward trajectory. The Fed has made it clear that fighting inflation remains their top priority, having raised rates by 25 basis points this week. While there is speculation that there may be one additional rate hike to come yet this year, it may be time for them to consider a pause to let their previous actions run their course.
Our second issue is banking failures. This issue ultimately boils down to liquidity issues. As interest rates rise, older bonds become less valuable as new bonds issued at higher interest rates become more attractive. As depositors begin to withdraw their funds, the banks are having a difficult time freeing up enough cash to meet the depositors’ demand since they have invested most of it in bonds at the time of deposit. The way to combat this is to cut rates to make new bonds less attractive. We can take comfort in the fact that the US Government has assured us that all depositor assets will be safe from bank failure. However, this will come with additional regulation as to how banks are allowed to invest depositor assets in the future.
So, when the financial world is caught between a rock and a hard place, and the Fed has made it clear where their priority lies, what does this mean for investor portfolios? It means we proceed with caution. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, we have erred on the side of caution when allocating client accounts by making a very large move to cash positioning. However, we continue to maintain a position of cautious optimism with the belief that there are opportunities to be found within the market. To discuss what opportunities are appropriate for your goals and your risk tolerance, please reach out to our advisory team at 941.932.4822 or schedule your consultation online at www.soundwealth.net because it’s time for you to be heard!
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.
The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
BROWS OUR WEBSITE
Business Hours
Check the background of investment professionals associated with this site on FINRA's BrokerCheck.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a Registered Investment Advisor, Member FINRA/SIPC
Certified Senior Advisors (CSAs) have supplemented their individual professional licenses, credentials and education with knowledge about aging and working with seniors. It is recommended that you verify the validity of any professional’s credentials in which you conduct business and be sure you completely understand what those licenses, credentials and education signify. The CSA certification alone does not imply expertise in financial, health or social matters. For more details visit: www.csa.us
General Disclosure - The LPL Financial registered representatives associated with this website may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.