Egg Nog and Economics

Amid the hustle and bustle of the holiday season, I’m sure the things at the top of everyone’s minds are economics and asset allocation, right? Well, here at Sound Wealth Management, that is exactly what is foremost in our thoughts as we think forward to 2022, because the most important thing we can do is to get our allocation correct for our clients. As we sit down with a glass of egg nog and immerse ourselves deep in the economic outlooks from many of the world’s largest banks and leading economists, the key factors that we are taking away as we move into the new year are the following:
- Tailwinds 2022:
- 52-year low for US unemployment, at a rate of 4.2%, estimated to reach 3.6% by year-end.
- From 2021, we went from 18 million people down to 3 million people on the unemployment lines.
- There are currently have 11 million open jobs in the US.
- The M2 money supply contains $2.2 Trillion in disposable income – households to spend, corporates to benefit.
- Debt service payments of disposable income is in a 40-year low from average.
- $1.2 Trillion infrastructure bill that will be stimulating the economy over the next 5 years.
- Low interest rate environment that should stay steady in 2022 between 1.4% and 2.25%.
- US GDP growth estimates between 4.2% and 4.5%.
- S&P 500 earnings per share should hit at least $220.
- Vaccination rates in the US are climbing. (Pandemic to Endemic)
- Corporate profits are at an all-time high and predicted to go higher.
- Savings rates are at an all-time high – 13.4% per household.
- Innovation is driving growth and value creation.
- Key megatrends: digital transformation, healthcare innovation and sustainability.
- There is no bubble in the market, perhaps certain stocks – but not the market.
- Headwinds 2022:
- Inflation and monetary policy diverging
- Another variant of COVID-19 with unknown implications at this time
- Geopolitical events (Ukraine, Taiwan, Iran)
- China’s economic policy
- Foreign countries having “zero COVID” policies
So, what does all of this mean for you, the investor, looking to the future? The key takeaway here is that the advisory team at Sound Wealth Management is risk-aware, but ultimately, optimistic about the markets going into 2022.
As renowned physicist, Niels Bohr, said, “prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” However, there are a few steps that you can take to make it much easier. This is where relevant information and guidance from a team of experienced professionals can make a profound difference in your pursuit of success as an investor. For a more in-depth look at how the US and global economy fits into your business or personal finances as you make your plans for 2022, please feel welcome to reach out to the advisory team at Sound Wealth Management at 941.932.4822 or visit our online calendar at www.soundwealth.net, where Sound Wealth Management is more than just our name!
The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.


